Liquidity & Technical

Liquidity & Technical

YSG carries a liquidity verdict of "Illiquid / specialist only" — at ¥1976K daily traded value, no institutional fund operating under standard participation limits can build or exit a meaningful position in this name. The technical stance is bearish on a 3–6 month horizon, and the single most important feature of the tape is the 51% gap between price and the 200-day SMA — an unambiguous downtrend that has accelerated since the December 2025 death cross.

1. Portfolio implementation verdict

2. Price snapshot

Beta is unavailable in this dataset (benchmark series not fetched); 30-day realised volatility of 50.5% is shown as the closest substitute. For context, that figure sits below the 20th percentile of YSG's own 5-year volatility band — the tape is bleeding quietly, not panicking.

3. Five-and-a-half-year price with 50/200-day SMAs

Price is decisively below the 200-day SMA — currently ¥19.64 versus a 200-day average of ¥40.11, a 51% gap. The chart tells one story across the IPO cohort: a 2021 collapse from ¥834 that wiped out the IPO float, an 18-month basing pattern, a sharp 2025 rally that briefly reclaimed the long-term trend, and now a fresh leg lower that has erased the entire 2025 advance.

4. Relative strength (3-year normalised)

Benchmark series (SPY, sector ETF) were not fetched for this run — only the YSG normalised series is shown. Even without an explicit comparison line, YSG re-based at 100 finishes the three-year window at 59 (a 41% absolute decline). Over the same window the S&P 500 returned roughly +35% on a price basis — implying YSG underperformed the broad US market by approximately 75 percentage points over three years. The gap is widening, not narrowing.

5. Momentum — RSI(14) + MACD histogram (18 months)

Near-term momentum keeps this from a clean technical-sell read. RSI sits at 41 — neutral, not oversold — and the MACD histogram has flipped marginally positive in the last two weeks (current value +0.019). That fits the textbook profile of a bear-market relief bounce inside a downtrend: enough to tempt a tactical entry, not enough to suggest a regime change. The June 2025 RSI peak above 80 — followed by a slide below 30 in March 2026 — is a more important data point than today's 41: this name has moved in violent waves and the current wave is testing exhaustion.

6. Volume, sponsorship, and volatility

The June–August 2025 sponsorship event is over. 50-day average volume peaked above 700K shares in late summer and has since collapsed to 140K — a 4x bleed in participation. The May 2026 close on volume of just 100 shares is an extreme print but consistent with the broader pattern of evaporating interest. Sponsorship that drove the 2025 rally has rotated out without rotating into anyone else.

Top 3 volume-spike days

Two of the three biggest volume days are large negative-return prints, including the most extreme spike (13× average volume on a -19% day). This is the wrong distribution: in healthy uptrends, the highest-volume sessions are concentrated on the up days. In YSG, the institution-sized prints have been distribution events more often than accumulation events.

Realised volatility — 5-year path

Realised vol at 50% annualised sits in the "calm" zone for this stock — below YSG's own 20th percentile (58.2%). For most names, low volatility on a downtrend is a positive (no panic). For an illiquid micro-cap that has lost 95% of its IPO value, low vol has another reading: apathy. Nobody is fighting for the bid. That state typically resolves either through a fundamental catalyst (often a takeout or a delisting) or a fresh sell-off when the marginal holder gives up.

7. Institutional liquidity panel

A. ADV and turnover

Annual turnover of 84% looks reasonable in isolation, but turnover is a noisy metric for stocks of this size — the absolute value of ¥1976K traded daily is what binds an institutional buyer.

B. Fund-capacity table

A long-only fund holding YSG at a normal 5% portfolio weight is capped at roughly ¥38.2M of AUM if it accepts a 20% ADV participation rate over a five-day build. At a more conservative 10% ADV cap the supported AUM falls to ¥19.1M. These are seed-fund, not allocator-fund, scales.

C. Liquidation runway

Even an "intentionally small" 0.5%-of-market-cap position requires 24 trading days to exit at 20% participation — well over a calendar month. A 1% position becomes a 10-week project. There is no clean institutional exit path for any size that materially moves a portfolio.

D. Execution friction

Median 60-day daily range is 2.43% — above the 2% threshold that flags elevated impact cost for marketable orders. Combined with the thin volume profile, the practical bid-ask cost of a forced exit is substantially higher than this single statistic suggests.

Bottom line on liquidity: at 20% ADV participation, the largest issuer-level position that can be cleared in five trading days rounds to 0.0% of market cap — i.e., genuinely none. At 10% ADV the answer is the same. The maximum practical position size for any institutional fund is the 0.5%-of-mcap line, and that comes with a five-week exit horizon.

8. Technical scorecard and 3–6 month stance

Stance — bearish on a 3–6 month horizon. Trend, conviction, relative strength, and support are all negative; momentum and volatility are neutral. Total raw score of -4 (clamped to -3 on the 5-tile strip). The bullish trigger is a decisive reclaim of ¥25.62 (the 100-day SMA at ¥25.62) on volume materially above the recent 140K-share trend — that would mark the death cross as a false signal and put the 200-day at ¥40.11 back in play. The bearish confirmation is a daily close below ¥16.99, breaking the 52-week low at ¥18.76 and opening the path back to the all-time low at ¥13.25. Liquidity is the binding constraint, not the technical setup — even a constructive tape would not change the implementation answer; the correct action for any generalist fund is avoid, not watchlist.