Deck

Yatsen Holding · YSG · NYSE

Yatsen owns six Chinese beauty brands led by Perfect Diary in color cosmetics and Galenic, DR.WU, and Eve Lom in skincare, selling 85% direct-to-consumer through Tmall, Douyin, RED, and JD.

¥19.64
Price per ADS
¥1.82B
Market cap
¥4.3B
Revenue (FY25)
78.2%
Gross margin
Listed November 2020 at a split-adjusted ¥601 per ADS; peaked ¥800 in February 2021; now ¥19.64 — roughly a 97% drawdown after four years of marketing-burn losses and a Perfect Diary cooldown.
2 · The line that decides the stock

Second-highest gross margin in beauty, worst marketing intensity in beauty — and FY25 didn't fix it.

  • 78% gross margin, -4% operating margin. Cost of goods is 22% of revenue. Selling & marketing eats 66.3%. Every 200 bps off the S&M line on a ¥4.3B base is ~¥85M to operating profit.
  • The S&M ratio moved 60 bps in the best year possible. Revenue grew 26.7%, gross margin hit an all-time high, skincare mix passed 53% — and S&M as % of revenue dropped only from 66.9% to 66.3%. The operating loss compression came almost entirely from the absence of a ¥403M Eve Lom goodwill hit plus 600 bps of G&A cuts.
  • Peers run S&M at 25–45%. e.l.f. 24.7%, Mao Geping 35%, Proya 45%. Yatsen's gross margin (78%) beats all of them. Its marketing intensity (66%) is more than twice e.l.f.'s.
The skincare mix shift is real. Whether it reaches the operating line is the open question.
3 · FY25 — the inflection, with one piece missing

Revenue back to growth, operating loss compressed 77% — and operating cash flow still negative.

¥4.3B
Revenue (FY25) +26.7% YoY, first growth since 2021
-¥186M
Operating loss FY25 from -¥825M FY24
-¥95M
Operating cash flow negative 5 of last 6 years
0.20×
EV / Revenue peer median 2.1×

Revenue peaked at ¥5.84B in FY2021 then fell to ¥3.39B by FY2024 as Perfect Diary's color-cosmetics flywheel cooled. FY2025 is the first credible turn — skincare 53% of mix and growing 64% YoY, gross margin at an all-time 78.2%, and Q4 2025 the first quarter to pair positive net income with revenue growth since IPO. The cash statement hasn't caught the income statement: OCF was -¥95M in the most operating-leverage-favorable year of the cycle. Cash and short-term investments drained from ¥5.73B at end-FY20 to ¥1.01B (¥1.05B including restricted cash) — which is why the founder took a US$120M convertible in March.

4 · The unchecked founder

Founder-CEO holds 90.7% of votes on 34.3% of the economics — and the dilution lever is half-pulled.

  • Class B super-voting shares. Jinfeng Huang founded Yatsen in 2016 at age 32 after stints as a Guangzhou P&G market research manager (2007-10) and VP at Hunan Yujiahui Cosmetics (2011-16); he later completed a Harvard MBA in 2017. His Class B shares carry 20 votes each. Board, audit committee, comp plan, and related-party approvals serve at his discretion; minorities cannot block any vote.
  • US$120M founder-affiliated convertible, March 11, 2026. Trustar Capital plus Huang personally co-invest at a US$4.63 conversion price — a 20% premium to the announcement, and ~60% above today's ¥19.64 (US$2.89) spot. Warrants struck at US$10/ADS. The stock fell roughly 27% in the three weeks after disclosure (¥28.68 on Mar 11 → ¥20.93 by end-March). NDRC certificate to unlock the 5-year tenor and the second tranche is still pending.
  • Related-party purchases climbing. FY25 inventory and services bought from companies under common control: ¥372M, ~9% of revenue, up 76% over two years (FY23-FY25) while group revenue grew 26% across the same span. Counterparties unnamed. Audit committee chair Sidney Xuande Huang resigned February 28, 2026 for 'personal reasons' — roughly two months before the 20-F filing.
5 · The next four months decide it

Three dated prints test whether FY25 was the turn or arithmetic.

  • May 14, 2026 — Q1 results. Management guide: revenue ¥959M–¥1.08B (+15–30% YoY). Watchpoints: revenue at the high end, S&M below 65%, and cash flat at ¥1.0B. Three of three would meaningfully challenge the 0.20× EV/Sales discount; one of three would leave it intact.
  • Mid-June 2026 — 618 shopping festival. No Yatsen brand has appeared on a Tmall or JD top-10 list since 2023; C-beauty momentum has migrated to Douyin. A first top-10 placement for DR.WU or Galenic during 618 would be independent verification that the skincare pivot is pulling external share, not just internal mix.
  • Mid-August 2026 — Q2 and the cash read. The first clean post-618 quarter with the convertible's first tranche in the cash and share count. Bull thesis specifies S&M below 62% and trailing-four-quarter OCF approaching positive.
6 · Bull & Bear

Lean cautious — cheap and inflecting at the headline, but the swing factor for value didn't move in the best year of the cycle.

  • For. Skincare mix 33% → 53% in three years and growing 64% YoY. Q4 2025 was the first quarter to pair positive net income with revenue growth since IPO. Gross margin at 78.2% is the second-highest in listed beauty behind only Mao Geping.
  • For. 0.20× EV/Sales against a 2.1× peer median; ¥835M net cash equals 45% of market cap; equity trades below tangible book.
  • Against. S&M ratio moved 60 bps in a +27% revenue year. The headline operating loss compression is mechanically traceable to a ¥403M goodwill non-recurrence plus G&A cuts — not to operating leverage on marketing.
  • Against. Cash drained ¥5.73B → ¥1.01B over five years; OCF negative in five of six. The US$120M founder-affiliated convertible reads as forced financing on terms minorities cannot negotiate, with the conversion math still pending NDRC approval.
Watchlist. One H1 2026 print of S&M below 62% with trailing OCF positive would flip the verdict to lean long. Until then the cheap multiple does not yet pay for the marketing treadmill or the unknown dilution.

Watchlist to re-rate: (1) Q1 2026 S&M ratio and operating cash flow; (2) NDRC approval and convertible second-tranche closing; (3) related-party purchases as % of revenue in FY26 interim disclosure.